By Michael Phillips | Wisconsin Bay News
The Iowa Department of Education released its fall 2025 certified K-12 enrollment figures this month, confirming a modest but continuing decline in public school enrollment—one that state officials say closely mirrors national demographic trends rather than abrupt policy changes.
According to the data snapshot taken October 1, 2025, Iowa’s total certified K-12 enrollment fell to 515,221 students, down about 4,800 students (0.9%) from the previous year. Enrollment in public school districts and public charter schools declined 1.53%, to 473,329 students, representing just under 92% of all K-12 students statewide.
State education leaders emphasized that these declines were expected well before Iowa’s school choice reforms expanded and are largely driven by lower birth rates and smaller incoming kindergarten classes, a phenomenon affecting nearly every state.
A National Pattern, Not an Iowa Anomaly
Iowa’s experience aligns with broader U.S. trends. The National Center for Education Statistics projects that nationwide public school enrollment will fall by nearly 2.7 million students—about 5%—by 2031, largely due to demographic shifts that began more than a decade ago.
In that context, Iowa’s year-to-year decline remains comparatively modest.
School Choice Options Continue to Grow
While traditional public school enrollment dipped, alternative education options continued to expand, reflecting changing family preferences rather than wholesale abandonment of public schools.
Key figures include:
- Open enrollment: Roughly 44,500 students—about 9% of all K-12 students—attended a public school outside their home district.
- Accredited nonpublic (private) schools: Enrollment rose 6.4% to 41,892 students, now just over 8% of total enrollment.
- Students First Education Savings Accounts (ESAs): 41,044 students used ESAs to attend private schools, marking the first year the program was fully universal.
Combined, these options mean more than one in six Iowa students now attend a school other than their assigned neighborhood public school.
Universal ESAs Reshape the Landscape
The 2025-26 school year is the first in which Iowa’s Students First ESA program is open to all families, regardless of income. The accounts provide approximately $7,988 per student for private school tuition and eligible educational expenses.
Participation has grown rapidly:
- 2023–24: ~17,000 students
- 2024–25: ~27,800 students
- 2025–26: ~41,000 students
Nearly all private school students now participate in the program, a shift that has sparked debate over public school funding but also clear evidence of parental demand.
State officials note that enrollment declines were projected prior to the ESA program’s launch, arguing that choice policies have coincided with—rather than caused—the overall downward trend.
Uneven Local Impacts
Although statewide changes appear modest, district-level effects vary significantly. Some districts, particularly in eastern Iowa, report 10–20% or more of resident students using ESAs, while others have seen enrollment stabilize or even grow through open enrollment gains.
More than 70 districts lost 100 or more resident students to ESAs, increasing reliance on Iowa’s “budget guarantee” system to smooth funding transitions.
A Shift Toward Choice, Not Collapse
Despite political rhetoric on both sides, the numbers suggest a more nuanced reality. Public schools still educate the overwhelming majority of Iowa students, and overall education funding continues to rise on a per-pupil basis.
At the same time, families are increasingly exercising choice—between districts, charters, and private schools—within a system shaped by long-term demographic change rather than sudden upheaval.
As Iowa looks ahead to the 2026–27 funding cycle, the enrollment data underscores a central challenge facing education policymakers nationwide: how to adapt public systems built for growth to an era defined by choice, flexibility, and fewer students overall.
Wisconsin Bay News 
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