By Michael Phillips | WIBayNews
Wisconsin’s first open gubernatorial race in more than a decade just gained its highest-profile Democrat yet. Former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes—who came within one point of defeating Sen. Ron Johnson in 2022—has officially launched his campaign to succeed outgoing Gov. Tony Evers.
Barnes, 39, enters the race backed by national name recognition, a proven fundraising machine, and a message centered on “affordability” and “pragmatism.” But for many Wisconsin voters—especially independents and suburban moderates—the announcement also reignites memories of his 2022 Senate campaign, which faltered amid concerns he was too far left for a swing state.
The question heading into 2026 is simple:
Has anything changed?
Barnes’ Pitch: A New Direction (That Sounds Very Familiar)
In his announcement video, Barnes insists the race is “not about left or right” but about whether “people can afford to live in the state they call home.”
It’s a good line. But Barnes enters this contest with a long, well-documented progressive record:
- Support for sweeping climate and clean-energy mandates
- Calls to reduce prison populations and shift funds toward social programs
- Alignment with the more activist wing of the Democratic Party
- Close ties to national progressive groups who spent heavily for him in 2022
While Barnes frames himself as a pragmatist, Wisconsin voters—particularly in the WOW counties—remember the ads, the policy proposals, and the national commentary that painted him as significantly to the left of the average statewide voter.
Even some Democrats admit the concern.
The Milwaukee Courier, a Black-owned paper, bluntly wrote:
“Mandela had his opportunity. He didn’t close.”
A Crowded Democratic Field — and a Party Split on Strategy
Barnes is the early frontrunner, but the Democratic field is the largest in recent memory:
- Sara Rodriguez, the current lieutenant governor
- David Crowley, Milwaukee County Executive
- Kelda Roys, state senator
- Francesca Hong, state representative and progressive favorite
- Missy Hughes, former WEDC CEO with business credibility
- Brett Hulsey and others
The split is clear:
- Progressives are excited by Barnes, Hong, and Larson (likely to enter).
- Establishment and moderates are gravitating toward Rodriguez, Hughes, or potential candidate Joel Brennan.
The wild card is former Democratic Party Chair Ben Wikler, who could unify factions if he jumps in.
But Barnes starts with the largest network and the steepest expectations—including pressure from national donors who still see Wisconsin as a must-win firewall in the Midwest.
Republicans: A Smaller Field, But a Sharper Message
The GOP side is far simpler:
- Tom Tiffany, the 7th District congressman and Trump-aligned conservative, leads the pack.
- Josh Schoemann, Washington County Executive, pitches himself as a pragmatic tax-cutter focused on waste reduction.
Potential entrants:
- Eric Hovde, fresh off a competitive 2024 Senate race
- Tim Michels, the 2022 nominee
- Tommy Thompson, the legendary four-term governor (a long-shot but always a name to watch)
Unlike the fractured Democratic field, Republican voters appear more aligned on priorities:
- Tax relief for families hammered by inflation
- Election reforms
- Crime and public safety
- Slowing the expansion of state government under Evers
If the GOP avoids the intraparty warfare that plagued 2022, they enter 2026 with an opportunity to flip a governorship that Republicans dominated for most of the last 30 years.
Wisconsin’s Stakes Have Never Been Higher
This isn’t just another race for Madison insiders.
The governorship controls:
- Veto power over a Republican-led legislature
- Education funding debates
- Tax policy during a period of record inflation and high costs
- Election administration in a state decided by razor-thin margins
- Redistricting and regulatory policy affecting farms, families, small businesses, and manufacturers
With President Trump winning Wisconsin in 2024 by fewer than 25,000 votes, and with national parties gearing up to pour tens of millions into the state, the 2026 race is poised to become one of the five most expensive governorship battles in the country.
The Cook Political Report calls it a “toss-up.”
Translation: Every vote will matter.
The Road Ahead: Can Barnes Win Over the Middle?
Mandela Barnes begins this race with advantages most candidates could only dream of:
- A national fundraising base
- Strong name recognition
- A message aimed at middle-class concerns
But he also enters with real liabilities:
- A progressive record Republicans will paint as out of touch
- Internal Democratic doubts about electability
- Lingering skepticism from suburban voters who swung the 2022 Senate race
- The challenge of defending Evers’ record on crime, taxes, and the cost of living
For Republicans, the path is clearer:
Present a unified front, sharpen a pocketbook message, and win back suburban families frustrated by rising costs.
For Democrats, the challenge is harder:
Choose a nominee who can both energize Milwaukee and Madison and avoid hemorrhaging support in Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington, and the Driftless region.
Barnes believes he can thread that needle.
Wisconsin voters will decide whether this time is different.
Wisconsin Bay News 
Leave a comment